The Weakening West: Opportunities for the East The West in the Era of TrumpAs the first quarter of the 21st century unfolds, there are many signs that the West, led by the United States of America, is struggling to maintain it’s dominant influence in the world. After the end of World War II, in 1945, the United States of America played a central role in encouraging the economic and governmental cooperation between countries of Western Europe, Canada and itself. As time moved on, this union of peace grew to incorporate other countries, and through it all, the United States has been the heart of the system. The system created has been truly unique with respect to the shared values, common goals, economic successes and mutual respect shared between these countries. However, this new, and often termed liberal world order, which has been defined, dominated and nurtured by the United States, continues, in recent years, to be challenged in a way that increases the likelihood that the West will be weakened as the dominant power in the unfolding 21st century. Factors within and external to theWest will play key roles in the weakening of its hold.  First, the strength and unity of the UnitedStates itself, as the leader and defender of the liberal order, is now incrisis. This crisis of unity and rise in populism now extends beyond theborders of the United States to other key nations of the western world, furthereroding the very values, policies and institutions that define the West.Second, the presence of weakened, unpredictable and misguided leadership in theUnited States is having a profoundly negative impact on the future of theUnited States as the leader of the West. And finally, China in the East, sitspoised to challenge what is already a weakened international order. It is atime of great challenge for the West and it appears that the liberal worldorder, as known today, will be weakened in the coming decades.     Thelast couple of years have given us cause to observe that important challengesin foreign policies seem to be coming more from within the countries themselvesthan from between the countries in the West.[1]In 2016, two powerful nations that have played key roles in the creation of theliberal order, the United States and the United Kingdom, appear to have turnedaway from this ideal. The rise of populism has been exemplified by the electionof President Trump in the USA and the exit of the UK from the European Union,or Brexit. Populism is best described as acommitment to strong leaders and a disdain for powerful institutions and limitson sovereignty.[2]It suggests a suspicion and hostility aimed at elites, mainstream politics andwell- established institutions.[3]Of course many of those very institutions are at the heart of the liberal worldorder such as the United Nations, the European Union, the World TradeOrganization, and others. Through these institutions we have enjoyed peace,safety, and economic stability.  Under Donald Trump, a populistleader, he has convinced many that he is there for the people, that he willsave them and that he eschews the important institutions as unnecessary,expensive and unhelpful to the people. The very middle class that the liberalworld order has helped to create are now turning against it. The working classresent the elite and rich and believe that they gain from internationalinstitutions and gain favor with higher ups in government.  “America first” was a slogan that has becomethe new reality of the USA. In the case of Brexit, the British government underthe leadership of David Cameron held a referendum on whether or not Britainshould leave the European Union. To the shock of the world a majority voted toleave. As with the pro-Trump supporters, the pro-Brexit supporters believedthat such dramatic change, in this case leaving the EU, was essential torestore the very identity of the country and its people. The “Take Control”slogan appears to have convinced many. It appears that the populist movement,in which a large segment of the poor and working-class population becomesanti-establishment and anti-elite has voted against the mainstream politicalleanings, once again. The very Union that has brought us peace for the last 70years is now under growing strain.[4]The impact of leaving the European Union remains to be seen for Britain itself,but this action most certainly weakens the very unified Europe that we have allcounted on as a powerful component of the liberal world order of the West. With the recognition of the UnitedStates as the historical nurturer and leader of the West it is logical toexpect that the President of the United States would espouse principles ofmutual respect and cooperation with the other countries of the West, inaddition to shared beliefs and goals. With the election of Donald Trump thevery leadership of the country, and of it’s future and of the West isthreatened. Trump appears to see the United States cooperation with the greaterWest as somehow costing the country more than it is benefitting it. Twosignificant decisions by Trump since coming into office illustrate just howseriously he seeks to appeal to his domestic base, regardless of its impactbeyond the country’s borders. Trump recently announced a decisionto withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. In 2015, 195countries attending the Paris Climate Conference adopted the first everuniversal global climate deal. The main goal of the agreement is to keep globalaverage temperatures from rising 2 degrees by the end of the century. Beyond 2degrees promises catastrophic weather changes threatening man’s very survival.For the U.S. the pledge they made was to reduce 26 to 28 percent greenhouse gasreductions by 2026. The agreement is to create a culture of accountability andhopefully some peer pressure between countries will be at work. PresidentTrump’s decision to withdraw has many believing, including Former EnergySecretary and US negotiator for the Paris Climate Agreement, Ernest Moniz, thathis decision is more about politics, even about theatre, than it is anything todo with climate.[5]Again, he is playing to his domestic base at home, focused on the UnitedStates, with little regard for other countries, or for the world at large.Without the United States there is no doubt that the Agreement will beweakened, not to mention the remarkable coalition of all but two countries, whoworked so hard to come to such a remarkable agreement. On the first day of PresidentTrump’s presidency he also pulled the United States out of the Trans-PacificPartnership Agreement. This is a trade agreement between twelve countries,responsible for 40% of the world’s trade, that border the Pacific Ocean. Theysigned up to this agreement in 2016.  The agreement was ultimately aimed at helping these countries toencourage trade between them and to deepen their economic ties. It is believedthat this deal, once ratified, would have supported greatly the United States’position in the Asia-Pacific region, where China’s influence is being felt moreand more.[6]Trump called it a “horrible deal” when on the campaign trail and claimed thatit aims to benefit big business and other countries and that, in the process,jobs in the United States would be threatened. While the USA now appearsfocused on its domestic interests, far from it’s previous role as the leader ofthe West, China now sits poised to replace the West as the new world leader. Gideon Rachman, in his new bookEasternization writes of a transformed Asia. In his words, “the West’scenturies-long domination of world affairs is now coming to a close.”[7]China, a country of enormous population and administrative determination, is onthe move to take advantage of the refocusing of the recent United Statesadministrative decisions and to assume control as the Eastern leader. In 2014 China became the worlds largest economy.[8] A fast expanding military  speaks to the confidence the leaders have in it’s own strength with respect to the United States and its own neighbors. China’s President Xi Jinping dedicates far more time visiting the People’s Liberation Army headquarters than his predecessors and clearly has as a mandate to develop new military policies and bolster Chinese Communist Party propaganda.[9] China is claiming ownership of waters claimed by other eastern countries and is building artificial islands and sending airplanes and ships to challenge fishing boundaries and oil resources. Many ongoing decisions of theUnited States administration bear evidence of their apparent willingness toforfeit power and leadership to China, in exchange for building their internalappeal to the general populous. Removing itself from the Paris ClimateAgreement has left China the opportunity now to move forward with leadership inthis area and to pledge new partnerships with members of the Agreement.Likewise, a few weeks after the United States removed itself from theTrans-Pacific Partnership China sent high-ranking diplomats to meet with theremaining members of the partnership to discuss forming a new regional tradepartnership with China, rather than the United States, as a member.[10]Just this week an article appearsin Foreign Affairs in which Casarini writes about “A New Era for EU-ChinaRelations?-How They Are Forging Ahead Without the United States”. He detailsseveral ways in which China is recently working with the EU. Beijing is tryingto charm Europe through investments. Europe is now the top destination forChinese foreign investments, surpassing the United States. Both China and theEU have pledged to continue efforts to reduce pollution and combat rising sealevels even, without the United States. Casarini believes it is likely that theEU and China will foster ties on security and defence as well. However, hepoints out quickly that “A China-EU alliance would be more a marriage ofconvenience than a solid partnership—one that is facilitated by Brexit and thatrevolves around a shared antagonism for Trump.”The future of the West, with theUnited States in a leadership role, faces major threats and, on it’s currenttrajectory, stands to weaken as the 21st century unfolds. With thePresident of the United States working to remove his country from agreementsfocused on the collective welfare of many countries, in favor of pleasing hisown voter base, combined with the rise of populist governments within the West,the future does not look hopeful. With the West weakened and lackingleadership, the East is well poised and stepping forward to strengthen it’sleadership on many fronts, including areas of economics, security and climate.It may be that China will forge alliances with members of the existing West,but one thing is certain, the West as it has been known until recently, willnot exist and the future remains unclear. Endnotes[1] Jeff D. Colgan, Robert O. Keohane,“The Liberal Order Is Rigged: Fix It Now or Watch It Wither,” Foreign Affairs, (May & June 2017),36. [2] Ibid.[3] Fareed Zakaria, “Populism on theMarch: Why the West Is in Trouble,” ForeignAffairs, (November & December 2016). [4] Amanda. Taub, “Brexit, Explained:7 Questions About What It Means and Why It Matters,” The New York Times, 20 June 2016.[5] Ernest Moniz, interview by FareedZakaria, Cable News Network, June 4,2017.[6] “TPP: What is it and why does itmatter?” British Broadcasting Corporation,January 23, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32498715 (accessed June 9, 2017).[7] Gideon Rachman, Easternization: Asia’s Rise and America’sDecline from Obama to Trump and Beyond (New York: Other Press, 2016).[8] Jessica T. Mathews, “Can ChinaReplace the West?” The New York Review ofBooks, (11 May 2017).[9] Ibid.[10]Ibid.BibliographyAcemoglu, Daron, and JamesA. Robinson. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty.New York, NY: Crown Business, 2013.Brinton,Crane, John B. Christopher, and Robert Lee Wolff. Civilization in the West.Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall Inc., 1964.Bröning, Michael. “The Rise of Populism in Europe: Can the CenterHold?” Foreign Affairs, 3 June2016. 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