China or the U.S.: Anopen debate for Southeast AsiaIntroductionSoutheast Asia is theregion that, arguably, has become the most promising around the world, due tothe number of people living there, its prospected economic growth and itsstrategic importance. Although the region has become increasingly important,one question remains to be answered regarding the place it has in the world,and that is if the region is going to align with either of the two superpowersof the world, China or the United States.In the 20th century, Southeast Asia became one of the many battlegrounds between the United States and the Soviet Union, but China was never entirely out of the background, and its prominence increased at the end of the century. Nowadays, both of these countries have a strong influence over the states of the region, and it is becoming more and more clear that whoever has the most control and ties to this part of the world, may become as well the biggest superpower of the world.However,regardless of the outside influence on the region, Southeast Asia by itselfmust decide which are their most important alliances for the mid and long term,while the region continues to grow. It is not an easy task, as there is acomplicated history with either of these countries, as well as new variablesthrown into the mix in more recent years, and even months, that will define thestanding of Southeast Asia, today and in the near future.HistoryIt is impossible totalk about the history of the region without discussing the influence the ColdWar had on these countries. Although the influence of the Soviet Union and theUnited States could be seen in all of them, it was most evident in the warsfought in Cambodia and Vietnam, where both of these superpowers supported onefaction and pitted them against each other. It is important to understand thehistory of the region and the close ties they developed among themselves lateron, because they served as the killing ground for the Cold War. The status ofthe countries of Southeast Asia as poor and geographically far from the US andthe USSR, made them apt for the war to develop, instead of other parts of theworld, like Europe or the Americas. (Kissinger1994; Lewis Gaddis 1998).One ofthe most important landmarks when talking about the region, is the creation ofthe Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), that started with fivecountries but that now encompasses all nations of Southeast Asia, with theexception of East Timor and Papua New Guinea. Once again, ASEAN alsoexemplified the Cold War dynamic, as it was created “to encourage economicand cultural cooperation among these non-Communist states”(Ricklefs2012: 339). Even so, thisorganization also helped to lower the influence of both the Soviet Union andthe United States in the region: “The ASEAN nations were seeking regionalcooperation and stability in part as a way to counted great-power influence inthe region.” (Ricklefs2012: 339)RegardingChina, one of the points of contention for the historical relationship betweenChina and the region, is their shared waters, mainly the South China Sea,precisely because “Southeast Asia lies at the intersection of two of theworld’s most heavily traveled sea-lanes. The east-west route connects theIndian and Pacific Oceans, while the north-south one links Australia and NewZealand to Northeast Asia.” (Sokolsky2001: 10) The great importanceof this trade route has caused tension among the country and the region, and itstill is one of the main reasons the relationship is not as good as it couldbe.Anothersore point in the history between China and the region, was the war withVietnam, that supposedly started as a punishment from China to the ASEAN country.But, this view has been challenged by the analysis of some historians, that nowclaim that “China’s decision to launch a punitive war against Vietnam wasintended to display Beijing’s usefulness in countering Sovietexpansionism”(Zhang2010: 28-29). This would mean thatonce again Cold War politics dominated the modern history of the region, andeven its relationship with China, that due to internal turmoil mostly stayed inthe sidelines during this period, and did not engage with other countries asclosely as it would later on.Theselines are not supposed to be an extensive history of the region, but just asmall sample of what has happened between the ASEAN nations, China and theUnited States, which has certainly shaped current relations. The history of theregion helps as well to understand the current sentiment among the countries,that are striving for a closer cooperation between them, before looking intostarting deeper ties with other countries, a product of the series of events inthe 20th century that affected this part of the world, in adifferent way than others, but arguably in more harmful ways.Current relationsNow, it is important tolook at the current trends of the region in relation to both of the countriesbeing looked at. Although it would seem that the current political climateshould not matter in the grand context of things, the uncertainty of currentrelations between the region and these nations have to be taken into account,particularly because of the new and impossible to decipher power that has beenthrown into the mix, Donald Trump.The upset by the former Republican candidate and now sitting president of the United States, was a major surprise home and abroad, and changed the course of the relationship between Southeast Asia and his country. One of the biggest selling points for Trump when he was campaigning in his home country was his supposed opposition to globalism, that is the global influence of the world in domestic policy, and he swore he was going to put his country above everything else, with a series of policies aptly named America First.Indeed, president Trump has already shown what his foreign policy might be, by withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), that has rendered it mostly useless now. To understand the magnitude of Trump’s move, and its significance for the relationship between the US and Southeast Asia, first it is important to define what was the TPP. The TPP was a trade deal between 12 countries that have a border with the Pacific Ocean, that together represent around 40% of the world’s economies. More importantly, the pact “aimed to deepen economic ties between these nations, slashing tariffs and fostering trade to boost growth. Members had also hoped to foster a closer relationship on economic policies and regulation.” (BBC 2017)On top of that, Trump is still a mystery regarding his policies, because he does not seem to have a clear position on anything, which has caused some troubles and has cast a shadow in the future of the relationship between his country and the region. In fact, today is a reality that the region as whole is now going to prioritize the creation of a trade pact that is focused in Asia, along with other big countries in the continent, like Japan, India and of course China.Thistrade deal has been named the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP),in place of the now dead TPP, and that could strengthen the position of Chinain the region over the US. Even so, this does not mean that the region wouldnot like to have a strong relationship with the country, but that is not a bigpriority, according to Philippine Trade Minister Ramon Lopez: “Everybodywould of course like to have a greater economic relationship with the US, theyare a big country, one of the biggest consumers as well, but it may not rankhigh in the ASEAN agenda.” (Reuters2017)Incontrast to Trump’s rhetoric and apparent protectionism, China has taken theopposite route and is seeking to expand its influence over Southeast Asia, bothin economic terms but also in cultural ones. This is very important, becauseother than the RCEP, which does feature China and would boost trade with theASEAN countries, there is also a push for more direct investment both by thegovernment and the private sector, that are eyeing the region as a primecandidate for more involvement.Certainly,China has already become the top trading partner for a large number of theASEAN countries, and the number of these nations that want to deepen theirbilateral ties with China is also growing, like Malaysia and the Philippines,that signaled that want to align themselves more closely with China, forexample on a recent visit to Beijing, where “President Rodrigo Dutertesaid he wants to cut the cord with the U.S., a key military ally, and pivot toChina. During a trip to Beijing in November, Malaysian Prime Minister NajibRazak signed about $30 billion worth of deals from energy to railinfrastructure.” (Roman2016)Anotheravenue that shows the tightening of the relationship between ASEAN nations andChina is tourism, because every day more and more Chinese tourists are going tothose countries. Along with the growth of Chinese tourism in general, theregion is receiving more visitors and the impact it has on the local economiesis becoming very large as well, as the estimate shows that a “30 percentincrease in spending by Chinese tourists would boost Thailand’s GDP by about1.6 percentage points, and Vietnam’s by almost 1 point.” (Roman2016)However,not everything is easy and straightforward in the bilateral relationshipbetween ASEAN countries and China, because as it has been mentioned before, thetensions regarding the South China Sea are far from over. The importance ofthis commercial route makes it a vital asset for any country that wants totrade on this part of the world, and even more so for the countries that havecompeting claims on this sea, that are: China, Vietnam, the Philippines,Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.Asrecently as 2012 and 2013, both the Philippines and Vietnam have engagednegatively with China regarding the South China Sea, that have led to furthertensions among these countries. Manila even got to the point of “takingChina to a UN tribunal under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Laws ofthe Sea, to challenge its claims.” (BBC2016) In this case, Chinahas boycotted any proceedings of a tribunal that backed the Philippines claims,and has stated they will not be bound by the resolution.ConclusionsAfter having looked atthe history and the more recent developments of the relationships that ASEANcountries have with both China and the United States, a conclusion must bemade, who would benefit these countries more as a close ally? It is hard to sayin the long term, because it is a very complex matter, but at the moment Chinais a better option for the region. This is not a conclusion that has beenreached lightly, as it involves rethinking everything about the region and itshistory, but at the moment it would seem like the wisest choice.Themain reason that China is now a better option for Southeast Asia is not onlyfor its geographical proximity to the region, but because it is showinginterest in investing in these countries, both the government and the Chineseprivate sector. Direct investment is one of the best ways to get involved witha foreign country, as it also boosts the economy and makes it an even moreattractive place for future investments. Tourism from Chinese nationals is alsoanother important reason to have closer ties with that country, despite thetensions in the South China Sea that can dampen relations, but if solved, couldmean a strategical step towards closer and stronger ties.Toreach this conclusion, Donald Trump also played a big part in why the UnitedStates might not be a great option. When the world seemed to be moving towardsmore open borders and increased trade, the victory of Trump in the presidentialelection changed the outlook of almost every part of the link between hiscountry and ASEAN nations. Even if his protectionist rhetoric is ignored, theinstability and uncertainty Trump brings to the table, is reason enough for notchoosing closer ties to the US, because the terms of said ties could change atany time at the whim of the president, something no nation can afford, evenless the ones in Southeast Asia that are still consolidating themselves.Theanalysis presented here it is not meant to be definitory, as the complexitiesof the subject are so large, that it could change at any time. Nonetheless, aneffort has been made into trying to clarify the issue at hand for SoutheastAsia, that is at a crossroads and has to decide which way to go, with thefamiliar but now unpredictable United States, or with the new superpower China,that historically has been more an enemy than an ally. The outcome of thatdecision will affect millions of lives, one can only hope it will be taken withcaution.BibliographyBBC (2016) Why is the South China Sea contentious?, BBC. 12 July 2016, available at http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349 accessed 22 May 2017.(2017) TPP: What is it and why does it matter?, BBC. 23 Jan. 2017, available at http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32498715 accessed 22 May 2017.Kissinger, H. (1994) Diplomacy. New York: Simon & Schuster Paperbacks.Lewis Gaddis, J. (1998) We Now Know: Rethinking Cold War History. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Reuters (2017) Southeast Asia prioritises trade pact including China as US rethinks policy, Channel NewsAsia. 26 Apr. 2017, available at http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/southeast-asia-prioritises-trade-pact-including-china-as-us-8793988 accessed 22 May 2017.Ricklefs, M. C. (2012) ‘The Cold War in Hindsight: Local Realities and the Limits of Global Power’ In Cold War Southeast Asia, in Murfett, M. H. (ed.), Singapore: Marshall Cavendish Editions.Roman, D. (2016) China Finds New Fans in Southeast Asia as U.S. Turns Inward, Bloomberg. 11 Dec. 2016, available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-11/china-finds-new-fans-in-southeast-asia-as-u-s-turns-inward accessed 22 May 2017.Sokolsky, R. R., Angel; Neu, Richard C (2001) The Role of Southeast Asia in U.S. Strategy Toward China. California: RAND Corporation.Zhang, X. (2010) ‘Deng Xiaoping and China’s Decision to go to War with Vietna’, Journal of Cold War Studies, 12 (3): 3-29.Get Help With Your EssayIf you need assistance with writing your essay, our professional essay writing service is here to help!Find out more